Via the referrer logs I found this kind post by Ben Hyde referring to my skeptical take on the idea of an eBay style aggregator for blogs. He raises the good point that there's the possibility that a client/server (or service) lock-in could be achieved in blogs, comparing it to the possibility that existed - but did not occur - at the inception of the Web. A blogging client of run-away popularity (analogous to Netscape and later IE) might conceivably turn into a way of locking users into a backend hosting and/or aggregating service. I don't think it's the likely outcome, but he's right that it should be considered.

You've likely noticed that this blog is authored on Radio, a client side tool. Radio could have be locked into the Userland hosting site, but fortunately, Dave didn't do that. On the other hand, Radio leaves a lot of room for competition. As a user interface, it's pathetic. Way back in 1984, the Mac commercialized something called the direct manipulation interface. You remember: drag-and-drop, WYSIWYG and all that? What I'm staring at here isn't of that generation - it's a 21st century makeover of an IBM 3270 forms-filling interface from the 1970s. Given the power of emerging blog/web services APIs to hosting services, there's really no excuse for it. There are a few third party add-ons for Radio emerging, but the action right now seems to be in M&A, funding events, and launches for new server based tools and hosting.

So, yes, there's a potential market hole, waiting for a solid entrant to kick Radio off its perch as blog client-side incumbent. Who? Well, the usual platform war suspects. How about Apple? Fancy a structured authoring mode in Safari, backending into .Mac? If not Safari, how about MSIE itself backending into a .NET based service? I'm still skeptical: I think market forces would require any such tool to be open on the backend, and I'm not sure the actual market size is enough to cause Microsoft to deviate from its planning for the war for enterprise domination. But it could happen.

Update: An e-mail exchange with the author of an RSS based client leads me to add this: I don't believe this client-side potential is a good VC investment. The entry barrier is too low (e.g., take a look at the comments to this post for a partial list of RSS based clients). Barring a true functionality or interface breakthrough that is protectable, that gives the competitive edge to those with existing brands and channels. Hence, AAPL and MSFT above.
1:34:09 PM    

A round-up of some current interesting stories on junk e-mail:

• The MIT Technology Review has an excellent overview of the state of play, including summaries of directory harvest attacks, IP agility and Bayesian networks. But it also looks at the pathology of the spamming cockroaches themselves. Choice quote:

  .....big-time spammers have a common profile. They have not been successful in anything else.... They are hackers gone bad, or they are crooks gone geek.

• Spam-maki (ewww!): The junk mail woes of Japanese mobile carrier AU, at Kokoro
• Microsoft uses its lawyers in a good cause, suing some large scale spammers.
• The Congress keeps plugging away on CAN-SPAM and related legislation.

Disclosure: We have an investment in this area.
1:07:28 PM