Salam is back, at a new URL, with entries dating from Xmas. Glad the goons didn't get him. For a dose of 21st century surreality, go and vote in his poll on when we're going to attack his country.
8:24:51 PM    

For Japan, demography is fate. Japan's is an aging population, with reproduction at far less than break-even rates. See for instance, Rostow's analysis (PDF). One analyst suggests that Japan would need immigration at a rate of 600,000 per year to sustain its current working population, even before considering the amount of labor that must be diverted to caring for the elderly. Since such a rate of immigration must be considered culturally impossible, an economic disaster looms.

Rostow suggests that when the inevitable is seen, a natural social and individual response will increase the Japanese birth rate. This is speculation. What appears inevitable, however, is that technology will be thrown at the problem. Hence, robotics. The most celebrated robot project in Japan is Honda's humanoid Asimo. Japanese researchers and policy makers are specific (for instance here) that the humanoid form factor may suit future robots for roles in eldercare and other roles now requiring real people. Robots are specifically destined for a future role in jobs that are '3K' - kitsui (tough), kitanai (dirty) and kiken, (dangerous).

At the same time, Sony's AIBO pioneered a new line of consumer oriented robots. While regarded as an over-priced curiosity in the US, the various AIBO versions have sold over 100,000 units in Japan and have moved into the cultural mainstream . AIBO and its abundant imitators and competitors signal that Japan is more ready to take on mechanical helpers and pets than to have more babies!

2:59:50 PM